“PCs are no longer the first or only devices users are choosing for internet access,” said Meike Escherich, principal research analyst at Gartner. “Over the last five years, global shipments of traditional PCs (desktops and notebooks) have fallen from 343 million units in 2012 to an estimated 232 million units in 2016. In terms of revenue, the global PC market has contracted from $219 billion in 2012 to an expected $122 billion in 2016.”
Many vendors in the mid-tier of the PC ecosystem are struggling. “They are severely reducing their regional and country-level presence, or leaving the PC market altogether,” said Ms. Escherich. “Between them, Acer, Fujitsu, Samsung, Sony and Toshiba have lost 10.5 percent market share since 2011. In the first quarter of 2016, Dell, HP Inc. and Lenovo gained market share but recorded year-over-year declines.”
Regional markets are also changing. Low oil prices and political uncertainties are driving economic tightening in Brazil and Russia, changing these countries from drivers of growth to market laggards. In terms of volume, the U.S., China, Germany, the U.K. and Japan remain the top five, but consumers in these markets have also been cutting their number of PCs per household.
“Nevertheless, PCs are still able to deliver in areas that smartphones and tablets cannot, with larger screens, ergonomic keyboards, greater storage and more powerful computer processors,” said Tracy Tsai, research vice president at Gartner. “With an oversaturated market and falling average selling prices (ASPs), PC vendors must focus on optimizing profitability to sustain growth.”
Despite a declining PC market, the ultramobile premium segment is on pace to achieve revenue growth this year — the only segment set to do so. It is estimated to reach $34.6 billion, an increase of 16 percent from 2015. In 2019, Gartner forecasts that the ultramobile premium segment will become the largest segment of the PC market in revenue terms, at $57.6 billion.
“The ultramobile premium market is also more profitable in comparison with the low-end segment, where PCs priced at $500 or less have 5 percent gross margins,” said Ms. Tsai. “The gross margin can reach up to 25 per cent for high-end ultramobile premium PCs priced at $1,000 or more.”
The segment will continue to grow thanks to replacement demand for traditional PCs and the touch experience that the two-in-one market (tablets and hybrids) provides. While the ASP for the ultramobile premium segment is not expected to fall rapidly, it will eventually move toward $600 in constant-currency terms. This situation, together with innovative two-in-one products, will entice users to not only replace their PC, but also look to upgrade to a device with more functionality and flexibility.
PC vendors need to adjust their portfolio of ultramobile premiums in markets such as North America, Western Europe, Greater China, Mature Asia/Pacific and Japan, where the ultramobile premium segment continues to grow.
